Ductless Heating and Cooling Systems Market By Type (Split Systems, Multi-split Systems, Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) Systems), Application (Residential, Commercial, Industrial), & Technology (Inverter Technology, Smart Systems), Region for 2024-2031

Ductless Heating and Cooling Systems Market Valuation – 2024-2031

The popularity of ductless heating and cooling systems is growing due to their energy efficiency, ease of installation, and versatility. These systems, sometimes known as mini-split systems provide an effective technique to regulate the temperature of individual rooms or zones without the use of ductwork. Traditional HVAC systems frequently waste considerable amounts of energy through ducts; however, ductless systems reduce this loss resulting in cheaper energy costs and a smaller carbon footprint by enabling the market to surpass a revenue of USD 117.06 Billion valued in 2024 and reach a valuation of around USD 179.81 Billion by 2031.

The increased awareness of environmental sustainability and the need to cut energy use drive consumers and companies to more efficient options such as ductless systems. They offer a versatile solution for residential and commercial areas, making them suitable for a wide range of applications including single-room expansions, full homes, and office buildings. This enables the market to grow at a CAGR of 6.08% from 2024 to 2031. 

Ductless Heating and Cooling Systems MarketDefinition/ Overview

Ductless heating and cooling systems, often known as mini-split systems are climate control technologies that deliver heating and cooling to specified parts of a home or building without the need for traditional ductwork. These systems have two major componentsan outside unit and one or more indoor units. The outdoor unit contains the compressor and condenser, whereas the indoor units commonly installed on walls or ceilings contain air handlers that distribute air into the rooms.

They’re also great for rooms or zones that need independent temperature control including basements, attics, or sunrooms. Ductless systems contribute to greater comfort and energy efficiency by allowing more exact temperature adjustments in various regions. Homeowners may keep desired temperatures in occupied spaces without wasting energy in empty sections which lowers utility expenditures.

Advances in technology are also increasing the appeal of ductless systems with newer versions delivering increase in efficiency, smart home integration, and better environmental performance thanks to the use of eco-friendly refrigerants. As the global emphasis on sustainability and minimizing carbon footprints rises, ductless heating and cooling systems are positioned to become the preferred option for modern, energy-conscious consumers and companies.

Will the Increasing Number of Smart Homes Drive the Ductless Heating and Cooling Systems Market?

The growing number of smart homes is a major driver of the ductless heating and cooling systems industry. As homeowners embrace smart technology to improve comfort, energy economy, and convenience, ductless systems have become a popular choice due to their interoperability with smart home ecosystems. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), smart home energy management technologies are predicted to be present in 65 million American households by 2025. This trend is consistent with the growing popularity of ductless systems which are easily linked with smart thermostats and home automation platforms.

According to the United States Department of Energy (DOE), ductless mini-split systems can save up to 30% more energy than typical HVAC systems making them an excellent alternative for energy-conscious smart homeowners. This efficiency is consistent with the overall trend of energy reduction in smart homes. Research published in the Journal of Consumer Research discovered that households using smart home energy management systems lowered their energy consumption by an average of 12%. Ductless systems provide zone-based temperature management which complements the precision and personalization that smart home customers want. According to the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE), zoned heating and cooling can save homeowners up to 30% on their energy expenditures which encourages the use of ductless systems in smart homes.

Will Increasing Environmental Issues Hamper the Ductless Heating and Cooling Systems Market?

The market for ductless heating and cooling systems faces potential obstacles as environmental concerns grow, notably with refrigerants and energy efficiency. Many ductless systems continue to use hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants which have a high GWP. According to the United States Environmental Protection Agency, HFCs can have GWPs hundreds of times higher than CO2. The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, ratified by 145 nations as of 2023 seeks to reduce HFC production and consumption by 80-85% by 2047. This regulatory pressure may compel manufacturers to spend in creating alternative refrigerants, thereby raising costs and limiting market development.

Despite these limitations, the market may see chances to solve environmental problems. Building cooling is one of the world’s fastest-growing energy demands with the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicting that it will treble by 2050. Ductless systems when correctly planned and implemented can provide greater energy efficiency than typical HVAC systems. According to the US Department of Energy, ductless heat pumps can save 30-40% on heating and cooling expenditures when compared to conventional systems. Furthermore, the development of low-GWP refrigerants, such as R-32 and natural refrigerants could help to relieve environmental issues.

Category-Wise Acumens

Will Widespread Use in Residential and Small Commercial Applications Influence the Type Segment?

Split systems are currently the most popular ductless heating and cooling systems. Their supremacy stems primarily from their widespread use in home and small business applications. Split systems which are made up of separate indoor and outdoor units connected by refrigerant lines provide a simple and effective option for single-room or small-space climate management. They are generally simple to install, particularly in existing buildings without ductwork making them an appealing choice for homes and small companies wishing to repair or replace their HVAC systems. Furthermore, split systems offer exceptional energy efficiency and tailored comfort because each interior unit can be controlled independently allowing customers to tailor the temperature to their specific needs.

Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) systems while extremely efficient and versatile are more common in larger commercial and institutional buildings. VRF systems use a single outdoor unit to control refrigerant flow to several indoor units at the same time resulting in precise temperature control and significant energy savings over large buildings with varying heating and cooling requirements. Despite these advantages, the VRF system’s complexity and greater installation costs can be prohibitively expensive for smaller-scale applications limiting their market domination. Multi-split systems which connect numerous indoor units to a single outdoor unit offer a compromise but are still less prevalent than single-split systems due to their greater complexity and cost.

Will the Superior Energy Efficiency and Performance Drive Growth in the Application Segment?

Inverter technology is currently the dominant force in the ductless heating and cooling systems market due to its superior energy efficiency and performance. Traditional HVAC systems frequently work at a single speed, cycling on and off to maintain the appropriate temperature. This on-and-off cycling consumes a large amount of energy and causes fluctuations in indoor comfort levels. In contrast, inverter technology enables the compressor to run at various speeds altering its output to meet the exact cooling or heating requirement. This continuous operation not only saves energy but also provides a more consistent and comfortable indoor climate. The ability to maintain exact temperature control without numerous starts and stops makes inverter-based ductless systems extremely efficient making them particularly appealing to individuals and companies looking to reduce their energy bills and environmental impact.

Smart systems, while becoming increasingly popular, are still more of a supplemental feature than the major engine of market supremacy. The addition of smart features such as Wi-Fi connectivity, mobile app control, and interoperability with home automation systems improves user ease and control but these benefits are frequently overshadowed by the underlying advantages afforded by inverter technology. Smart systems enable customers to remotely monitor and alter their HVAC settings, set routines, and interact with other smart home devices resulting in improved comfort and energy management.

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Country/Region-wise Acumens

Will the Changing Climatic Conditions and the Fast Expansion Drive the Growth in North America?

The North American region dominates the ductless heating and cooling systems market owing mostly to changing climatic conditions and rising urbanization. These elements are projected to continue to drive growth in the coming years. Changing climatic circumstances have a considerable impact on the North American ductless heating and cooling systems market. According to NOAA, the average temperature in the contiguous United States has risen by 1.8°F (1°C) since 1901. This warming trend is expected to continue with the US Global Change Research Program predicting a further increase of 2.3°F to 6.7°F (1.3°C to 3.7°C) by 2100. Rising temperatures are causing increasingly frequent and severe heat waves increasing the demand for efficient cooling systems.

Another major driver of the ductless heating and cooling systems market is North America’s rapid urbanization. According to the United Nations, North America’s urban population is anticipated to reach 82% by 2050 up from 74% in 2020. This rapid urbanization is resulting in increased construction of multi-family housing and renovations of older structures where ductless systems are frequently favored due to their flexibility and ease of installation. According to the US Census Bureau, multi-family housing starts climbed by 14% between 2020 and 2021, totaling 460,000 units. Furthermore, the National Association of House Builders (NAHB) predicts that approximately 38% of house renovation projects in 2021 will include HVAC upgrades with ductless systems becoming increasingly popular.

Will the Growing Investment in Building and Construction Boost the Market in the Asia Pacific Region?

The Asia Pacific region is predicted to experience the most rapid expansion in the ductless heating and cooling systems market. This rapid growth is primarily driven by increasing investment in building and construction activity throughout the region. Growing investment in development and construction is a key driver of the Asia Pacific ductless heating and cooling systems market. According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the construction sector in Asia and the Pacific is expected to develop by 6.5% per year between 2021 and 2025 exceeding the global average of 3.5%. This expansion is driven by fast urbanization, population growth, and economic development in countries such as China, India, and Southeast Asia.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), energy demand for space cooling in the Asia Pacific is predicted to triple by 2040 opening up a significant market opportunity for ductless systems. The region’s hot and humid climate along with increased disposable incomes is fueling the need for air conditioning systems. Ductless systems with their energy efficiency and capacity to deliver both heating and cooling are well suited to fulfill this rising need. Furthermore, government programs supporting energy-efficient buildings and sustainable development are fueling the industry.

Competitive Landscape

The ductless heating and cooling systems market is a dynamic and competitive space, characterized by a diverse range of players vying for market share. These players are on the run for solidifying their presence through the adoption of strategic plans such as collaborations, mergers, acquisitions, and political support. The organizations are focusing on innovating their product line to serve the vast population in diverse regions.

Some of the prominent players operating in the ductless heating and cooling systems market include

• Honeywell International, Inc.
• LG Electronics South
• Daikin Industries
• Johnson Controls
• Carrier
• Trane Technologies plc
• Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
• Nortek Air Management
• Samsung Electronics
• FUJITSU
• GREE
• Hitachi
• MiUea
• Panasonic
• Haier Smart Home
• Whirlpool
• Electrolux
• Lennox

Latest Developments

• In December 2022, Trane Home (Trane) and American Standard Heating & Air Conditioning (American Standard) announced the national rollout of Link, a communication system designed to simplify the installation, commissioning, and remote monitoring of variable speed HVAC systems. After a regional rollout in spring 2022, independent Trane and American Standard dealers can now sell and install Link across the country.
• In January 2023, Goettl Air Conditioning & Plumbing, a provider of residential HVAC and plumbing services in the Southwest, announced the acquisition of Nevada Heating, Cooling, Plumbing, and Fireplace in Reno, Nevada, as part of its ongoing acquisitional growth strategy.

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