South Africa Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market By Type (Crystalline Silicon and Thin Film), By End User (Residential, Commercial, and Industrial (C&I), and Utility), By Grid Type (On-grid and Off-grid), By Deployment (Ground-mounted and Rooftop), By Region, Competition Forecast and Opportunities, 2028

South Africa Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market is anticipated to grow at a steady pace in the forecast period, 2024–2028. T

Government Initiatives Towards Solar Energy Booming the Market Growth

Until the independent renewable energy producer program was implemented (REIPPP) in 2011, the solar energy sector was almost non-existent. However, in May 2022, after the program was in the initial phase, the installed capacity of utility scale solar electricity was more than 2.37 GW.

In addition, the country aims to install 8,400 MW of solar power generation capacity under the REIPPP. By 2030, PV will be enough to power 1.5 million households. Also, the government of south Africa is planned to install 18 GW of solar energy by the end of 2050. As a result of such a scenario is expected a significant development in the South African solar industry. Moreover, in April 2022, the government announced that it launched the sixth round of Uusiutuva the Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program (REIPPPP), which enables the private sector industrial investments in the development of renewable energy. According to this, the purpose of the authorities purchases 2.6 GW of renewable energy, including 1.6 GW of solar.

Growing Investments in the Nation

South Africa is also seeing growing interest from various companies to invest in the solar market. For instance, South African mining company Harmony Gold, announced in June 2022 that it had begun construction of three 10MW solar projects as part of its Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) program. According to the Harmony Gold, the first phase of renewable energy project involved at 30 megawatt (MW) solar power plant in Free State Province, South Africa. In addition, the mining company said the second phase will add 137 megawatts across its various mines, which will enable more than R500 million annual cost savings if it reaches full production in 2025.

Additionally, in June 2022, renewable energy producer Scatec signed Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) for three consecutive solar and storage projects in South Africa, with 540MW of solar capacity. Scatec's three major projects combined 540MW of solar power with 1.1GWh (BESS) battery space of energy storage system, to provide 150MW (megawatt) of renewable energy from 5 am to 930 pm. Furthermore, the BESS enables power distribution, allowing ESKOM and Scatec to reduce the size of the grid connections required to integrate new resources. Hence, the government's targets for solar power coupled with domestic supportive policies and initiatives are estimated to push the deployment of solar power during the forecast period.

Decline Cost of Solar PV System Installation

In South Africa, the cost of photovoltaic (PV) techniques has declined enormously in recent years. According to the International Renewable Agency (IRENA), the average installed cost of utility-scale solar PV in 2020 is about USD 1,148 per kW, compared to USD 1,32155,555 per kW in 2019, With a 15% decrease.

The utility-scale solar PV installation cost in South Africa, more than 40% of the value comes from the solar PV modules and inverters, while the (BoS) balance of system accounts for 34% of the total, and the remaining comes from the soft prices and installation cost. The swiftly declining PV installed costs are largely due to the constant improvement in solar PV technology which helps in cost reduction, economies of scale and competitive supply chains, and improving developer experience. Such a development is likely to remain and increase the assumption of solar PV installation in the country during the forecast period.

The residential solar PV installation cost is also decreasing significantly in South Africa. In 2020, the average installed cost of residential sector solar PV was USD 1,575 per kW, a sharp decline from around USD 3,145 per kW in 2015 and USD 1,864 in 2019. Hence, with such a circumstance, along with the increasing electricity prices by ESKOM, the solar PV market in the country is opening a new movement of clean energy investment by households and commercial and industrial customers. Thus, owing to the above-mentioned points, the declining cost of solar PV installation in South Africa is projected to drive the market studied during the forecast period.

Increasing Competition from Onshore Wind Energy Restraining the Market Growth

In South Africa, the increasing developments in the wind power sector are likely to restrain the growth of the solar PV market during the forecast period. While other renewable power sources such as hydro and bioenergy have comparatively slower growth than the wind energy sector. The country has witnessed considerable developments in the wind energy sector for the past few years. According to the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy in South Africa, the total onshore wind energy installed capacity at the end of 2021 was about 3.03 GW, an increase of 23% compared to 2.51 GW in 2020.

Furthermore, the country aims to have 11.5 GW of onshore wind capacity by 2030. In August 2021, the South African electricity public utility Eskom Holdings announced its plan to invest ZAR 106 billion (USD 7.2 billion), in renewable technology, including onshore wind power technology, by 2030. Such initiatives are likely to see massive deployment of onshore wind power projects in the country, restraining the growth of solar PV in the coming years. Moreover, in April 2022, South Africa’s Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) announced the beginning of the Bid Window 6 (BW6) of the (REIPPPP) Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Programmed. The launch of the sixth bidding round is expected to see 2.6 GW worth of renewable projects, including 1.6 GW of wind. Thus, the rising competition from alternative clean energy sources such as onshore wind energy projects in diversifying the renewable power sector is expected to restrain the growth of the solar PV market during the forecast period.

Recent Development

• The International Institute of Sustainable Development estimates that South Africa's energy subsidies increased by three times since 2017 and were worth roughly USD 10.4 billion in 2020. To keep up with the rising demand and encourage investment in renewable energy, the nation raised the levy on fossil fuels. However, fossil fuels and coal-fired energy received the majority of the subsidies.
• Since coming into the project development business in 2010, Canadian Solar has developed, built, and connected solar photovoltaic panels to numerous projects across South Africa. As of March 2022, in Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region, the company has about 4,815 MWp installed capacity of total pipeline projects, nearly 15 MWp of projects are under construction, 277 MWp backlog projects, and an additional 4,523 MWp of projects in the pipeline (mid-to early-stage).
• In June 2021, Canadian Solar secured 54.22 million from Banco Santander S.A. to support growth in project development in the EMEA region, especially in countries such as Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, South Africa, and others. Such strategic support is expected to enhance the solar power market during the forecast period.
• As of 2021, the Jinko solar company is focusing on expanding its footprint in South Africa through investing in factories and strengthening the supply chain. Jinko Solar has a solar module factory in Cape Town, South Africa, with an annual production capacity of 120 MW, with a total investment of about USD 7.5 million.

Market Segment

Market Players

Major market players in the South Africa Solar Photovoltaic (PV)Market